Paper trading · Research journal · October 7, 2026

Fourteen trades.
One clear lesson.

A positive gross session for SURGE, but the trade-by-trade record exposed a breakout-quality problem worth testing. Results below are reconstructed from broker fills and passed the October 7 EOD reconciliation.

SURGE · October 7Reconciled
Gross P&L+$33.82
Total trades14
Winning trades6
Losing trades8
Win rate42.9%
6 wins (42.9%)8 losses (57.1%)
Average win+$21.02
Average loss−$11.54

Paper trading · Gross before fees · Net pending

CORE · verified
$0.00
0 trades · no signal, no position · win rate N/A
EOD: PASS_GROSS_FEES_PENDING

Fees and net P&L are pending. These are paper-trading results, not live-account returns or proof of a profitable edge.

What the session actually showed

What worked

Several momentum entries produced gains, including BIYA and LGCL. Risk controls and time exits remained visible in the recorded trade lifecycle.

What did not

Losses remained part of the session: BIYA (−$13.79), LPCN, SXTC, SMXT, SPAI and LGCL. A late SPAI entry occurred inside a larger choppy range rather than above a meaningful recent high.

A profitable day does not validate the strategy. The observation is a reason to run a controlled next test, not to declare an edge.

PDCA · Plan / Do / Check / Act

01 / PLAN

Make breakouts more selective

Test whether a longer prior-high reference filters short-range chop entries without eliminating too many genuine momentum setups.

02 / DO

Replace the 5-bar reference with 30 bars

The SURGE scanner was updated after the October 7 session. The existing stop, sizing, exits and daily loss gate were not changed by this scanner patch.

03 / CHECK

Verify the change before judging performance

Targeted patch tests passed. The existing production test suite had the same failures before and after the scanner change. No post-change trading result is claimed yet.

04 / ACT

Start a fresh cohort October 8

Track the new 30-bar build prospectively. Do not combine October 7's 5-bar results with the new cohort or treat a single session as validation.

SURGE-R · Parallel experiment

SURGE-R recorded no completed trades in its first observed session. The day's configuration changed during observation, so it is not a clean Candidate 5 validation cohort.

Candidate 6 was installed for October 8: a 30-bar impulse-high reference and evaluation of all qualified candidates. Its 5× relative-volume requirement remains unchanged. Opportunity capture and performance are still unproven.

Evidence and boundaries

EngineOctober 7Evidence status
SURGE14 trades · +$33.82 grossReconciled
CORE0 trades · $0.00Verified zero-trade day
SURGE-RNo completed trades reportedSeparate engine; not in this EOD bundle

SURGE trade attribution in the EOD report is inferred from matched local events; broker fills establish quantity and gross P&L. This page summarizes the verified report and explicitly separates subsequent software changes.

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